A surprising jump in enrolment last September that boosted School District 43 coffers by more than $4 million and resulted in the hiring of dozens of new teachers and educational assistants may be a blip rather than a trend.
Schools counted 453 more students in classes than were projected last spring but a new report suggests numbers will drop by about 174 FTE students when the next school year starts in September.
Reasons for the decline include fewer kindergarten students enrolled last fall and a huge class of 2,694 graduating students this June. But the district is still expecting to see some students migrating to SD43 classes from other districts and an influx of Syrian students, both of which will offset the decline.
The district bases its enrolment projections on provincial estimates and those of consultants Barager Systems as well as new construction yield rates (i.e., the number of school-aged children predicted to come from new condos and homes), then follows up with its own analysis.
Barager had predicted an increase of 133 FTE students while the Ministry of Education is predicting a drop of about 185 FTE students.
SD43 assistant superintendent Gerald Shong told trustees the district decided to go with a figure more closely aligned to the province's estimates because it's not known if students will arrive from home and condo projects still under construction in time for September classes.
The uncertainty, and the importance of enrolment estimates in establishing budget projections — how much money it will get in provincial grants — meant the district decided to go with a more conservative figure. Having to cut teachers and education assistants in September if the numbers don't pan out "could be a challenge and disruptive to teachers and obviously to students," Shong said.
As for this year's growth, Shong said the new students came from independent schools and other school districts as well as from out of the province and from out of country.
