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Why the Canucks traded Dakota Joshua for an underwhelming return

Evaluating the Dakota Joshua trade is less about the trade itself and more about what the Canucks do next.
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Dakota Joshua is on his way to the Toronto Maple Leafs after the Vancouver Canucks traded him on Thursday.

When I watched Star Wars: The Force Awakens, I had some reservations. The entire movie felt like it was designed to remind people why they liked Star Wars in the first place by largely replicating the first Star Wars movie, A New Hope, to set up a new trilogy of movies with new characters. On its own, it wasn't necessarily a great movie.

In other words, The Force Awakens left me on the fence, because my feelings about the movie were going to be largely predicated on what they did next. If the subsequent movies were new and exciting, my feelings about The Force Awakens would be more positive, as that's the movie that set the stage.

I feel very similarly about the Vancouver Canucks trading Dakota Joshua to the Toronto Maple Leafs for a fourth-round pick in the 2028 NHL Entry Draft.

On its own, this is a very underwhelming trade. Joshua had earned a lot of fans in his three seasons in Vancouver with his hard-working, hard-hitting game, winning the Fred J. Hume Award as the team's unsung hero in both the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons.

In Vancouver, Joshua found his identity as a checking-line winger who can contribute some offence, scoring a career-high 18 goals and 32 points in 63 games in 2023-24.

That career year earned Joshua a four-year contract extension with a cap hit of $3.25 million. Unfortunately, that contract is also exactly why he was traded.

Joshua struggled last season for reasons entirely out of his control. His offseason training was derailed by a diagnosis of testicular cancer that required surgery. Fortunately, the surgery was successful and Joshua made a full recovery, but it understandably took him a long time to get back up to speed once he returned to the Canucks lineup.

Joshua managed to get 7 goals and 14 points in 57 games, which was a significant step back from his career year, and his underlying numbers took an even more significant hit. He went from a 51.3% corsi in 2023-24 to a 45.5% corsi last season, the lowest among Canucks forwards who played at least 300 minutes at 5-on-5.

Back to full health, Joshua should be a lot better next season, but that $3.25 million cap hit was a problem for a Canucks team that is looking to upgrade elsewhere in the lineup. 

The Canucks have been very clear that they want to add another centre to their lineup, but they lacked the cap space to do it. Trading a guy like Joshua seemed inevitable.

The fourth-round pick the Canucks received from the Leafs is not really the primary return in the trade. Instead, it's the $3.25 million in cap space in the next three seasons. That's enough space to potentially add another centre, or the Canucks could look to clear even more cap space in order to add a more impactful player.

The question is what will the Canucks do next? Will it be a controversial move like The Last Jedi? A complete disaster like The Rise of Skywalker? Or will they manage to pull off an Andor?

What the Canucks do next will determine how people view the Dakota Joshua trade in the future.