More School District 43 students are graduating than enrolling in kindergarten, resulting in a possible drop in the number of students attending schools in September.
The district tends to be “conservative,” the board of education was told at its Feb. 20 meeting, but this year foresees 148 fewer full-time equivalent (FTE) students in SD43 schools compared to September 2017.
Still, predicting student enrolment is always a challenge and last year the district saw more students than predicted.
The district bases its numbers on 2,625 high school graduates leaving and 2,036 kindergarten students entering the system, as well as migration and growth in areas such as Burke Mountain, Town Centre, Port Moody and Burquitlam.
Another source of students could be private schools parents who decide to send their children to the new Smiling Creek elementary school opening on Burke Mountain.
In all, the district expects 29,863 FTE students in September.
“We try to err on the side of being a little bit under,” said assistant superintendent Gerald Shong, noting that it can be disruptive to schools if too many teachers are hired based on an overly optimistic enrolment prediction.
The district also confers with municipalities to find out what stage various developments are at, he said, to determine how many new students will be enrolling in schools, Shong said.
