School District 43 enrolment — the all-important number that guarantees provincial funding — is expected to drop slightly in September because kindergarten registration is not keeping up with graduates who are leaving local high schools.
SD43 is expecting 134 fewer full-time equivalent students next year, essentially flatlining enrolment that has been subject to slight fluctuations in recent years.
Assistant superintendent Gerald Shong said the estimate is conservative but is based on factors such as how many students are coming out of new housing developments or arrive during the year, kindergarten sign-ups and the number of students expected to graduate.
According to numbers released at the board of education meeting Tuesday, 2,736 high school students are expected to graduate in June but only 2,175 five-year-olds are expected to enrol. However, 489 students are expected to move to the district, offsetting the drop.
"This is important to us because we base our budget on this," said Coquitlam Trustee Barb Hobson.
The province's forecast has the district only losing 59 students but Shong the Ministry of Education just uses a trend line to get its numbers.
Meanwhile, the fate of refugee families who live along the North Road-Cottonwood corridor, where new developments are replacing older apartment units, is as yet unknown.
Some have already moved to other districts, including Surrey, Langley and even Abbotsford, the school district said, and numbers of refugee students may drop this year.
But Shong told The News a decrease in refugee student enrolment hasn't yet been seen in schools, although he said the district is monitoring the situation.
