When the most important public opinion poll of all — the general election — teeters toward an uncertain conclusion, it’s no wonder that polls conducted during a campaign don’t always reveal the mood of the electorate.
The result of the May 9 election will not be known for until next week. We will need to wait for any recounts to be completed and absentee ballots — the ones cast in a riding other than the one the voter lives in — to be tallied.
As the votes were counted after the polls closed, there were clear winners in some ridings.
They had leads that were so large, there is no chance of a recount and there will not be enough absentee ballots to make a difference. In many other ridings, things were not quite so clear and, as a result, the total seat count was in doubt.
When the final count is complete, which party will be in power? Who will be the premier? There are many questions remaining in this, the closest election we have seen in many decades.
Some of the polls done in the last couple of weeks before the election hinted at this sort of outcome: a race too close to call. Others said the New Democrats were in the lead.
At first glance, it appears the province-wide polls this time were more accurate than the ones done in 2013, which must go down in history as one of the worst B.C. campaigns for pollsters. No poll taken in the two months before the 2013 vote could predict the strong performance of the BC Liberals. Some came close but all polls had the New Democrats in front.
This time, the Victoria Times Colonist, of which I am editor-in-chief, chose to poll only four electoral districts: Saanich North and Islands, where three candidates who nearly tied in 2013 were staging a rematch, as well as three Vancouver Island ridings where incumbents were retiring.
So how did they do? One for four.
As the editor, I’m discouraged. As the one who pays the bills, I want a refund.
Newspapers mean well. The polling companies mean well but I’m done with them.
Really, it seems we are no better off than we were in the days of the Social Credit government, when public opinion polls were not allowed during campaigns.
Election campaigns back then were summer affairs and the PNE brought people together. What better place, then, to conduct a poll that’s not a poll?
Hungry fairgoers at a hamburger stand were given their choice: In 1972, for example, they could have a Bennettburger, a Barrettburger or an Andersonburger — all identical, except one bore the name of Social Credit leader W.A.C. Bennett, another was named for NDP leader Dave Barrett, and the third was named for Liberal leader David Anderson.
The Barrettburgers were by far the most popular, and the election results agreed with the burger sellers.
Those burgers were great, by the way — tasting much better than crow, which is what many pollsters should be eating.
Dave Obee is the editor-in-chief of the Victoria Times Colonist, a Glacier Media sister paper of The Tri-City News.
www.timescolonist.com
