Commentators of all stripes have proclaimed the byelections this Thursday in the Tri-Cities and in Chilliwack as bellwethers for next year's provincial general election.
To all the pundits, the armchair politicians and the big-city reporters who touched down in this suburban riding for a day or let their fingers do the walking on Google, we say hogwash.
This byelection will be won or lost on several things that have little or nothing to do with an election more than 12 months away. It will come down to organization and who can best get the vote out this Thursday. The crown is going to go to the the party that does the best job in turning mild voter interest in into political action. This will be tough as voter turnout is typically low for byelections, although this riding is typically more politically active than most.
Will former Port Moody mayor Joe Trasolini's name recognition win him the seat? It will certainly help his NDP campaign, and he will likely end the BC Liberal stranglehold on the riding. Trasolini has fought a mild campaign, without any of his characteristic combativeness, and it has been interesting to watch his evolution from civic to political politician. Still, the BC Liberals, represented by Dennis Marsden, won't go down without a fight and the race could be closer than many people think.
Do the BC Conservatives have a chance to take this riding. Not likely, although Christine Clarke has been an able deputy for leader John Cummins, and the party's adroit populist campaign targeting the BC NDP, the Liberals and Joe Trasolini on fiscal matters will win some support from cash-strapped voters.
A sign that Trasolini is the man to beat was the BC Liberals' patently dishonest effort to paint him as an obstacle to the Evergreen Line.
All that is to be expected at election time. But this election is child's play compared to the three-way battle coming in 2013. It would seem this current race isn't so much a barometer of things to come but an inquiring finger raised to the winds of political change.
